For Sheran, before the board on Wednesday 23 September 2026

The customer funnel in five board slides: today, where it leaks, the engine on the funnel, the same funnel with 10,000 more sign-ups a month, and the gap to the north star with what closes it

Slide 1 shows where we are in August 2026: registered accounts split into customers who have bought before and customers who never have, each lane narrowing to those in the app, meeting at monthly transacting users. Slide 2 names and sizes the four leaks where the programmes will appear. Slide 3 is the same funnel on its own slide: the four programmes, their journeys and the two predictive models on the stage each one moves, referral looping back to the top, and the bottom band moving to the Q4 marketing model's run rate so the deck agrees with the pre-read. Slide 4 is the same funnel with 10,000 more sign-ups a month, an assumed volume: the numbers that change, on what new customers actually do in their first year plus the engine's lift on them. Slide 5 shows the gap to 4.5% and what closes it: each rate in the funnel and what it would have to become, with why more sign-ups grow the count but not the share, so the growth question is answered before it is asked. The movement plays in the browser; the deck images are stills.

Proposal, draft. Not built into the deck. Figures: the Data for Board Reporting sheet for August 2026; the Q4 marketing model (live Sheet, 20 September) for the Q4 effect; Marketing's warehouse read where marked.

Slide 1 of 5, the talk's chapter 1: where we were.

Slide 2 of 5, the talk's chapter 1 into 2: the same funnel, the four leaks named and sized where the programme boxes sit on slide 3, so the diagnosis turns into the treatment.

Slide 3 of 5, the talk's chapter 2 into 4: the same funnel, the engine on it and the bottom band moving to the Q4 run rate; the buyer mix stays on slide 1 and the 4.5% target on slide 4.

Slide 4 of 5, the talk's chapter 3 into 4: the same funnel with 10,000 more sign-ups a month, the numbers that change and what it is worth.

Slide 5 of 5, the talk's chapter 5: the gap to the north star and what closes it. The bridge on the left; on the right, what each rate in the funnel would have to become, from August's own structure; arithmetic, not a forecast.

MARKETING From today to the north star 4.5% is double today's buyers on the base we already have: every funnel rate 1.5 to 1.8 times better; the Q4 launches are the first 3,300 The gap: accounts buying in a month, all on today's base of 2,319,824 4.5% of the base, the north star 104,392 51,867 Today, August 2026 2.24% of the base +3,292 The Q4 launches journeys and tests, once all live 55,159 At run rate 2.38% of the base 49,200 The gap more of today's accounts buying 4.5% needs no new accounts: it is twice today's accounts buying each month. More sign-ups grow the count, not the share: 10,000 more a month is about 3,900 more buyers a month with the engine on them and 120,000 more accounts a year, so the share barely moves. The Q4 tests are in the 3,300; the journeys’ 2,081 buyers bought through paid acquisition instead, about £450k a year, would not stay. What closes it, on today's base: every rate in the funnel 1.5 to 1.8 times today's, at once LEVERTODAY, AUGUSTFOR 4.5%WHO MOVES IT Active buyers who buy in the monthbought before, in the app in the last 60 days 13.8%21,890 of 159,120 23%×1.7 Grow and Defend; productconversion, trip to sale Active buyerseveryone who has bought and is still in the app 159,12028% of 567,131 buyers 280,00049%, ×1.8 Defend keeps them, Recoverbrings them back, Grow adds First purchases a monthfirst buys: new sign-ups and older accounts 10,3424,700 new, 5,600 older 17,000×1.6 Activate, 19.8% → 25% within30 days; more sign-ups Quiet buyers who come back and buybought before, not in the app for 60 days or more 7,3761.8% of 408,011 11,0002.7%, ×1.5 Recover, the propensity-to-return score sizing offers Web buyers without an accounta flexible ticket bought on the website 12,151 12,151held flat The new website and Product Monthly transacting usersthe north star 51,8672.24% of the base 104,3924.5% of the base The Q4 launches, 3,300 of52,500; then every rate No single lever gets there alone: it would need 3 to 8 times today's rate. Every sign-up also grows the base, which raises the 4.5% line with it, about 1.3% a month at today's sign-ups. The balanced path is arithmetic that reaches 104,392 on August's structure, not a forecast. Q4 2026 marketing model, 20 September: the journeys add 2,081 buyers a month and £279k net a year, upgrades only, at benchmark lifts behind control groups; the acquisition tests about 1,200 and £100k: 3,292 and £379k in all. August's buyers by source: Marketing's warehouse read (51,759 against the board sheet's 51,867). Base and anchor: the board sheet and the 2026 growth model. Paid acquisition at an assumed £2.50 an install. Product funnel figures: the Q4 model's KPIs tab. More sign-ups: 3,900 buyers a month is the sign-ups slide's basis, what new customers do in a year plus the engine's lift on them; the pack's first-purchase basis counts about 2,000 and £164k a year for the same 10,000.